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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Scotland tour of United Arab Emirates · 2023/24 · Men
14 Mar 2024 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 51%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 5% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 1% to 95%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waseem Muhammadstumped · Charlie Tear · Brad Currie 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Charlie Tear · b Brad Currie | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| T Suricaught · Brandon McMullen · Jack Jarvis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Jack Jarvis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aryan Lakracaught · Charlie Tear · Jack Jarvis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Tear · b Jack Jarvis | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Alishan Sharafucaught · George Munsey · Brad Currie1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Munsey · b Brad Currie | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Ashwanth Valthapacaught · Brandon McMullen · Brad Currie1 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Brandon McMullen · b Brad Currie |
| 5 |
| 12 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 41.67 |
| Rahul Chopracaught · Charlie Tear · Jack Jarvis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Tear · b Jack Jarvis | 14 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 73.68 |
|---|
| Aayan Afzal Khanlbw · Mark Watt 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mark Watt | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Basil Hameedbowled · Mark Watt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mark Watt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Akif Rajabowled · Mark Watt 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mark Watt | 28 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 112.00 |
|---|
| Omid Shafi Rahmanlbw · Chris Greaves 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chris Greaves | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Currie1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 1.75 | 3 | 0 |
| Jack Jarvis1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Safyaan Sharif0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 4.71 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Greaves0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Waseem Muhammad, 0.4) · 2-2 (T Suri, 1.1) · 3-8 (Alishan Sharafu, 2.1) · 4-8 (Aryan Lakra, 3.4) · 5-14 (Ashwanth Valthapa, 5.0) · 6-19 (Aayan Afzal Khan, 7.3) · 7-19 (Basil Hameed, 7.5) · 8-48 (Rahul Chopra, 12.2) · 9-55 (Omid Shafi Rahman, 14.0) · 10-62 (Akif Raja, 15.2)
Recorded target: 95 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/3 |
| 4 | 2 | 10/4 |
| 5 | 4 | 14/5 |
| 6 | 1 | 15/5 |
| 7 | 4 | 19/5 |
| 8 | 4 | 23/7 |
| 9 | 4 | 27/7 |
| 10 | 7 | 34/7 |
| 11 | 9 | 43/7 |
| 12 | 5 | 48/7 |
| 13 | 0 | 48/8 |
| 14 | 7 | 55/9 |
| 15 | 7 | 62/9 |
| 16 | 0 | 62/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
