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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Scotland tour of United Arab Emirates · 2023/24 · Men
14 Mar 2024 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 51%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 5% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 1% to 95%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseylbw · Basil Hameed 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Basil Hameed | 21 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 116.67 |
| Brandon McMullencaught and bowled · Omid Shafi Rahman 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Omid Shafi Rahman | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Charlie Tearcaught · Waseem Muhammad · Aayan Afzal Khan 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 16 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 59.26 |
| Richie Berringtonbowled · Akif Raja 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akif Raja | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Michael Leaskbowled · Basil Hameed 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Basil Hameed | 11 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 73.33 |
| lbw · b Aayan Afzal Khan |
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| Chris Greavesstumped · T Suri · Aayan Afzal Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · T Suri · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Mark Wattcaught · T Suri · Omid Shafi Rahman0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Suri · b Omid Shafi Rahman | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Safyaan Sharifcaught · Alishan Sharafu · Akif Raja 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b Akif Raja | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Brad Currienot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 15 | 0 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
| Hamza Tahirbowled · Omid Shafi Rahman 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Omid Shafi Rahman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Omid Shafi Rahman0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.4 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 7.13 | 3 | 0 |
| Akif Raja1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Basil Hameed0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Aryan Lakra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-33 (Brandon McMullen, 3.2) · 2-41 (George Munsey, 5.3) · 3-42 (Richie Berrington, 6.1) · 4-58 (Michael Leask, 10.4) · 5-66 (Charlie Tear, 11.5) · 6-71 (Chris Greaves, 13.1) · 7-72 (Jack Jarvis, 13.3) · 8-73 (Safyaan Sharif, 15.0) · 9-94 (Mark Watt, 19.3) · 10-94 (Hamza Tahir, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 14 | 33/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 39/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 40/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 47/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 51/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 55/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 56/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 59/4 |
| 12 | 7 | 66/5 |
| 13 | 5 | 71/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 73/7 |
| 15 | 0 | 73/8 |
| 16 | 2 | 75/8 |
| 17 | 5 | 80/8 |
| 18 | 8 | 88/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 92/8 |
| 20 | 2 | 94/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
