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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
25 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Gambia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Gambia started on 53%; Gambia batted first.
Gambia's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (Lesotho: 0% to 85%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lebona Leokaokecaught · Ousman Bah · Aniru Conteh 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ousman Bah · b Aniru Conteh | 10 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 43.48 |
| Chachole Tlalicaught · Mustapha Suwareh · Andre Jarju 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mustapha Suwareh · b Andre Jarju | 15 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
| M Devush Patelrun out · Muhammed Manga, Aniru Conteh · Aniru Conteh 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Muhammed Manga, Aniru Conteh | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
| Maaz Khancaught · Pa Assan Faye · Andre Jarju 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pa Assan Faye · b Andre Jarju | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
| J Matjatjelbw · Aniru Conteh 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aniru Conteh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ts'episo Chaoanarun out · Andre Jarju, Frank Campbell · Andre Jarju 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| run out · Andre Jarju, Frank Campbell |
| 7 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 77.78 |
| Lefulere Monanthanebowled · Aniru Conteh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aniru Conteh | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Inshaf Farooknot out 2 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 35* | 27 | 2 | 2 | 129.63 |
|---|
| Tanki Alber Khetsibowled · Aniru Conteh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aniru Conteh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Bahlakoana Mejarobowled · David Demba 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b David Demba | 6 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 35.29 |
|---|
| M Khautarun out · Ousman Bah, Malang Touray · Ousman Bah 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ousman Bah, Malang Touray | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abubacarr Kuyateh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Musa Jobarteh0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 2 | 1 |
| Aniru Conteh0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 4 | 6.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Andre Jarju0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| David Demba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ousman Bah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.5 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 21.60 | 0 | 0 |
1-37 (Lebona Leokaoke, 6.5) · 2-39 (Chachole Tlali, 7.3) · 3-49 (M Devush Patel, 8.4) · 4-49 (J Matjatje, 8.5) · 5-51 (Maaz Khan, 10.0) · 6-60 (Ts'episo Chaoana, 11.4) · 7-65 (Lefulere Monanthane, 12.1) · 8-65 (Tanki Alber Khetsi, 12.2) · 9-90 (Bahlakoana Mejaro, 18.5) · 10-109 (M Khauta, 19.5)
Recorded target: 113 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 49/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 51/5 |
| 11 | 8 | 59/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 65/6 |
| 13 | 2 | 67/8 |
| 14 | 3 | 70/8 |
| 15 | 3 | 73/8 |
| 16 | 3 | 76/8 |
| 17 | 5 | 81/8 |
| 18 | 6 | 87/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 91/9 |
| 20 | 18 | 109/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.