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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
25 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Gambia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Gambia started on 53%; Gambia batted first.
Gambia's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (Lesotho: 0% to 85%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Jarjubowled · M Devush Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b M Devush Patel | 8 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 47.06 |
| Muhammed Mangabowled · M Devush Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b M Devush Patel | 10 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Frank Campbelllbw · M Devush Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b M Devush Patel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Abubacarr Kuyatehlbw · Inshaf Farook 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Inshaf Farook | 29 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 87.88 |
| Aniru Contehcaught · Lebona Leokaoke · M Devush Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lebona Leokaoke · b M Devush Patel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| run out · Maaz Khan |
| 6 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| David Dembabowled · Lefulere Monanthane 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Lefulere Monanthane | 9 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Mustapha Suwarehrun out · Lebona Leokaoke · Lefulere Monanthane 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Lebona Leokaoke | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Ousman Bahnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Musa Jobartehcaught · Bahlakoana Mejaro · Lefulere Monanthane 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Bahlakoana Mejaro · b Lefulere Monanthane | 20 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 153.85 |
|---|
| Malang Touraynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ts'episo Chaoana0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 4.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Inshaf Farook0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| M Devush Patel0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 4.50 | 6 | 0 |
| Bahlakoana Mejaro0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Lefulere Monanthane0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| J Matjatje0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Andre Jarju, 5.1) · 2-18 (Frank Campbell, 5.2) · 3-27 (Muhammed Manga, 7.1) · 4-27 (Aniru Conteh, 7.3) · 5-44 (Pa Assan Faye, 10.3) · 6-57 (David Demba, 12.4) · 7-74 (Mustapha Suwareh, 14.3) · 8-76 (Abubacarr Kuyateh, 15.4) · 9-104 (Musa Jobarteh, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 27/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 33/4 |
| 9 | 5 | 38/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 42/4 |
| 11 | 10 | 52/5 |
| 12 | 4 | 56/5 |
| 13 | 3 | 59/6 |
| 14 | 11 | 70/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 74/7 |
| 16 | 2 | 76/8 |
| 17 | 11 | 87/8 |
| 18 | 6 | 93/8 |
| 19 | 11 | 104/9 |
| 20 | 8 | 112/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.