BangladeshversusZimbabwe

10 May 2024 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 5 runs

Bangladesh19.5 overs143/10 Zimbabwe19.4 overs138/10 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

73%Bangladesh27%Zimbabwe

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,613 vs 1,533 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 7 and Zimbabwe won 3
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 71%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 43% to 95% during the match (Zimbabwe: 5% to 57%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.3: Mustafizur Rahman to M Faraz Akram, M Faraz Akram out. Bangladesh up from 54% to 79%.
2nd inns 19.3: Shakib Al Hasan to B Muzarabani, six by B Muzarabani. Zimbabwe up from 5% to 25%.
2nd inns 19.4: Shakib Al Hasan to R Ngarava, R Ngarava out. Bangladesh up from 77% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh143/10 Zimbabwe138/10

Innings 2

Zimbabwe

138/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Brian Bennettcaught · Shakib Al Hasan · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shakib Al Hasan · b Taskin Ahmed	0	4	0	0	0.00
Tadiwanashe Marumanilbw · Shakib Al Hasan 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Shakib Al Hasan	14	13	3	0	107.69
Sikandar Razabowled · Taskin Ahmed 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Taskin Ahmed	17	10	4	0	170.00
Johnathan Campbellcaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Shakib Al Hasan 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Shakib Al Hasan	31	27	1	2	114.81

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	0	10.50	3
Shakib Al Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	35	4	9.55	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	3	4.75	0
Tanvir Islam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	0	7.00	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	6	1	3.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	14	18/1
3	8	26/1
4	2	28/2
5	5	33/3
6	5	38/3
7	3	41/3
8	4	45/3
9	11	56/3
10	2	58/4
11	3	61/4
12	6	67/4
13	20	87/4
14	5	92/4
15	2	94/6
16	9	103/6
17	14	117/7
18	6	123/7
19	7	130/8
20	8	138/10

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