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Zimbabwe tour of Bangladesh · 2024 · Men
10 May 2024 · T20
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 71%; Bangladesh batted first.
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 43% to 95% during the match (Zimbabwe: 5% to 57%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Johnathan Campbell · Luke Jongwe 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Johnathan Campbell · b Luke Jongwe | 52 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 140.54 |
 Soumya Sarkarlbw · Luke Jongwe3 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b Luke Jongwe | 41 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 120.59 |
 Tawhid Hridoycaught · Brian Bennett · Sikandar Raza1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brian Bennett · b Sikandar Raza | 12 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantobowled · Brian Bennett0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brian Bennett | 2 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 28.57 |
 Shakib Al Hasanbowled · Brian Bennett0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brian Bennett | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Jaker Alicaught · Faraz Akram · Richard Ngarava0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Faraz Akram · b Richard Ngarava | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossainbowled · Luke Jongwe0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Luke Jongwe | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmedrun out · Brian Bennett, Clive Madande · Richard Ngarava0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Brian Bennett, Clive Madande | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Tanzim Hasan Sakibbowled · Richard Ngarava1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Richard Ngarava | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmancaught · Clive Madande · Blessing Muzarabani0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Clive Madande · b Blessing Muzarabani | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Tanvir Islamnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.83 | 2 | 0 |
| Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Bennett0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Jongwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Faraz Akram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Wellington Masakadza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-101 (Tanzid Hasan, 11.2) · 2-108 (Soumya Sarkar, 12.0) · 3-121 (Tawhid Hridoy, 13.4) · 4-122 (Shakib Al Hasan, 14.1) · 5-123 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 15.0) · 6-130 (Jaker Ali, 16.2) · 7-130 (Taskin Ahmed, 16.5) · 8-132 (Rishad Hossain, 17.3) · 9-138 (Tanzim Hasan Sakib, 18.3) · 10-143 (Mustafizur Rahman, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 33/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 42/0 |
| 6 | 15 | 57/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 66/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 76/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 86/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 90/0 |
| 11 | 10 | 100/0 |
| 12 | 8 | 108/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 117/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 122/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 123/5 |
| 16 | 7 | 130/5 |
| 17 | 1 | 131/7 |
| 18 | 2 | 133/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 138/9 |
| 20 | 5 | 143/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Johnathan Campbell: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shakib Al Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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