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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier B · 2025/26 · Men
15 Mar 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Mexico more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Mexico started on 67%; Mexico batted first.
Mexico's chances ranged from 11% to 80% during the match (Suriname: 20% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S Bharrattcaught and bowled · Shubhang Sharma 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Shubhang Sharma | 28 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 112.00 |
| V Hirlalcaught · Shoaib Rafiq · D Panda 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shoaib Rafiq · b D Panda | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Vishwar Shawcaught · Shubhang Sharma · Gurpreet Singh (2) 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shubhang Sharma · b Gurpreet Singh (2) | 14 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 73.68 |
| Gavin Singhnot out 5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 51* | 39 | 5 | 1 | 130.77 |
| Troy Dudnathbowled · Amir Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Amir Butt | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 53.85 |
| XSD Smith |
| lbw · b Shoaib Rafiq |
| 4 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 36.36 |
| YP Dayalcaught · KB Patil · Amir Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KB Patil · b Amir Butt | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Arun Gokoelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratik Singh Bais0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 10.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Shoaib Rafiq0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| D Panda0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Shubhang Sharma0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 4.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Gurpreet Singh (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Amir Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-28 (V Hirlal, 4.2) · 2-40 (S Bharratt, 6.2) · 3-66 (Vishwar Shaw, 11.2) · 4-94 (Troy Dudnath, 15.1) · 5-115 (XSD Smith, 18.5) · 6-119 (YP Dayal, 19.2)
Recorded target: 127 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 35/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 38/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 44/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 49/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 54/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 62/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 68/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 76/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 81/3 |
| 15 | 13 | 94/3 |
| 16 | 8 | 102/4 |
| 17 | 7 | 109/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 113/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 117/5 |
| 20 | 10 | 127/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.