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ICC Women's T20 World Cup · 2024/25 · Women
11 Oct 2024 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 8%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 9% during the match (Australia: 91% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Beth Mooneycaught · Aliya Riaz · Sadia Iqbal3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aliya Riaz · b Sadia Iqbal | 15 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Alyssa Healyretired hurt · Syeda Aroob Shah5 fours · 0 sixes | retired hurt | 37* | 23 | 5 | 0 | 160.87 |
 Ellyse Perrynot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 22* | 23 | 2 | 0 | 95.65 |
 Ashleigh Gardnernot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out |
| 7* |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 140.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Nida Dar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sadaf Shamas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Umaima Sohail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Syeda Aroob Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-36 (Beth Mooney, 4.1)
Recorded target: 83 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 35/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 37/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 46/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 51/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 56/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 67/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 72/1 |
| 11 | 11 | 83/1 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Sophie Molineux: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tayla Vlaeminck: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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