PakistanversusAustralia

11 Oct 2024 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 9 wickets

Pakistan19.5 overs82/10 Australia11.0 overs83/1 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

9%Pakistan91%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Pakistan (1,743 vs 1,480 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 10 and Pakistan won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 8%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 9% during the match (Australia: 91% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.4: S Molineux to Muneeba Ali, Muneeba Ali out. Australia up from 92% to 94%.
4.6: ML Schutt to Sadaf Shamas, Sadaf Shamas out. Australia up from 93% to 95%.
9.4: G Wareham to Nida Dar, Nida Dar out. Australia up from 96% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan82/10 Australia83/1

Innings 1

Pakistan

82/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Muneeba Alicaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Sophie Molineux 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Sophie Molineux	7	12	0	58.33
Sidra Ameenlbw · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Annabel Sutherland	12	18	0	66.67
Sadaf Shamascaught · Alyssa Healy · Megan Schutt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alyssa Healy · b Megan Schutt	3	6	0	50.00
Nida Darstumped · Alyssa Healy · Georgia Wareham 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Alyssa Healy · b Georgia Wareham	10	10	1	100.00
Umaima Sohailcaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Georgia Wareham 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Georgia Wareham	3	7	0	42.86

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Megan Schutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	7	1	2.33	0
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	4	5.25	2
Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	1
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.5	15	2	5.29	2
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	2	4.00	0
Tahlia McGrath0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	4	0	2.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	7	9/0
3	2	11/0
4	4	15/1
5	3	18/2
6	5	23/2
7	3	26/3
8	3	29/4
9	8	37/4
10	3	40/5
11	2	42/5
12	5	47/5
13	2	49/5
14	5	54/5
15	2	56/5
16	2	58/5
17	9	67/6
18	8	75/6
19	3	78/9
20	4	82/10

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