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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland Women tour of Zimbabwe · 2023/24 · Women
23 Jan 2024 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 46%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 18% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 82%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiedza Dhururucaught · Jane Maguire · Arlene Kelly 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jane Maguire · b Arlene Kelly | 11 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 25.58 |
| Pellagia Mujajibowled · Ava Canning 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ava Canning | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Mary-Anne Musondabowled · Cara Murray 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cara Murray | 23 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 44.23 |
| Ashley Ndirayacaught · Arlene Kelly · Laura Delany 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arlene Kelly · b Laura Delany | 25 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
| Kelis Ndhlovubowled · Cara Murray 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cara Murray | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Georgina Dempsey · b Cara Murray |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 20.00 |
| Nyasha Gwanzurabowled · Cara Murray 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cara Murray | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
 Precious Marangebowled · Cara Murray0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cara Murray | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Nomvelo Sibandarun out · Amy Hunter, Georgina Dempsey · Cara Murray 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Amy Hunter, Georgina Dempsey | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| M Mavunganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| L Mabherostumped · Amy Hunter · Cara Murray 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Amy Hunter · b Cara Murray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 2.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Ava Canning1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgina Dempsey1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Laura Delany0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 6.5 | 0 | 31 | 6 | 4.54 | 1 | 2 |
1-6 (Pellagia Mujaji, 3.4) · 2-28 (Chiedza Dhururu, 12.3) · 3-59 (Mary-Anne Musonda, 20.5) · 4-67 (Kelis Ndhlovu, 23.0) · 5-69 (Loren Tshuma, 24.1) · 6-77 (Ashley Ndiraya, 26.0) · 7-89 (Precious Marange, 28.1) · 8-95 (Nyasha Gwanzura, 28.5) · 9-99 (Nomvelo Sibanda, 30.4) · 10-99 (L Mabhero, 30.5)
Recorded target: 181 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 6/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 10/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 11/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 15/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 21/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 28/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 29/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 33/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 38/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 40/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 46/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 49/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 50/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 53/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 59/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 64/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 67/4 |
| 24 | 2 | 69/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 74/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 77/6 |
| 27 | 8 | 85/6 |
| 28 | 4 | 89/6 |
| 29 | 6 | 95/8 |
| 30 | 2 | 97/8 |
| 31 | 2 | 99/10 |
Precious Marange: Foreign and Commonwealth Office · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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