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Pakistan tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
4 Nov 2024 · ODI
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 22%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 1% to 34% during the match (Australia: 66% to 99%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Abdullah Shafiquecaught · Josh Inglis · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Mitchell Starc | 12 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 46.15 |
| Saim Ayubbowled · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Mohammad Babar Azambowled · Adam Zampa4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adam Zampa | 37 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 84.09 |
 Mohammad Rizwancaught · Josh Inglis · Marnus Labuschagne2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Marnus Labuschagne | 44 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 71 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 61.97 |
| Kamran Ghulamcaught · Josh Inglis · Pat Cummins 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Pat Cummins | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Matthew Short · Sean Abbott 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Short · b Sean Abbott | 12 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 41.38 |
|---|
| Irfan Khanrun out · Matthew Short, Glenn Maxwell · Glenn Maxwell 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Matthew Short, Glenn Maxwell | 22 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 62.86 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridibowled · Mitchell Starc3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Starc | 24 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 126.32 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahcaught · Mitchell Starc · Pat Cummins1 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Mitchell Starc · b Pat Cummins | 40 | 39 | 1 | 4 | 102.56 |
|---|
 Haris Raufbowled · Adam Zampa0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Adam Zampa | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mohammad Hasnainnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 3.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 4.03 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 4.25 | 3 | 1 |
| Aaron Hardie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 64 | 2 | 6.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Short0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Saim Ayub, 2.4) · 2-24 (Abdullah Shafique, 6.4) · 3-63 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 17.4) · 4-70 (Kamran Ghulam, 19.0) · 5-101 (Salman Ali Agha, 27.0) · 6-117 (Mohammad Rizwan, 31.4) · 7-148 (Shaheen Afridi, 36.4) · 8-175 (Irfan Khan, 42.1) · 9-183 (Haris Rauf, 43.5) · 10-203 (Naseem Shah, 46.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 5/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 12/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 24/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 32/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 32/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 35/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 43/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 49/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 51/2 |
| 16 | 8 | 59/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 62/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 67/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 70/4 |
| 20 | 1 | 71/4 |
| 21 | 1 | 72/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 76/4 |
| 23 | 0 | 76/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 81/4 |
| 25 | 8 | 89/4 |
| 26 | 8 | 97/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 101/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 103/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 105/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 108/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 112/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 117/6 |
| 33 | 7 | 124/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 128/6 |
| 35 | 2 | 130/6 |
| 36 | 14 | 144/6 |
| 37 | 4 | 148/7 |
| 38 | 4 | 152/7 |
| 39 | 7 | 159/7 |
| 40 | 10 | 169/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 172/7 |
| 42 | 3 | 175/7 |
| 43 | 7 | 182/8 |
| 44 | 1 | 183/9 |
| 45 | 1 | 184/9 |
| 46 | 18 | 202/9 |
| 47 | 1 | 203/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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