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Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
16 Nov 2025 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 29%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Haris Rauf 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Haris Rauf | 24 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 88.89 |
| Kamil Misharacaught · Haseebullah Khan · Mohammad Wasim 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Haseebullah Khan · b Mohammad Wasim | 29 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 96.67 |
| Kusal Mendisbowled · Mohammad Wasim 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Wasim | 34 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 62.96 |
| Sadeera Samarawickramabowled · Faisal Akram 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Faisal Akram | 48 | 65 | 2 | 0 | 73.85 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught and bowled · Faisal Akram 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Faisal Akram | 10 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 111.11 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Pakistan: 46% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Fahim Ashraf |
| 4 |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 30.77 |
| Pavan Rathnayakerun out · Saim Ayub, Haseebullah Khan · Shaheen Afridi 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Saim Ayub, Haseebullah Khan | 32 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 86.49 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanalbw · Shaheen Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shaheen Afridi | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jeffrey Vandersaybowled · Mohammad Wasim 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Wasim | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Pramod Madushancaught · Haseebullah Khan · Haris Rauf 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Haseebullah Khan · b Haris Rauf | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Eshan Malinganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 4.91 | 2 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.78 | 1 | 1 |
 Haris Rauf1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 4.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Wasim0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 3 | 4.70 | 2 | 0 |
| Faisal Akram0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
1-55 (Pathum Nissanka, 8.1) · 2-69 (Kamil Mishara, 11.4) · 3-112 (Kusal Mendis, 24.1) · 4-123 (Kamindu Mendis, 26.0) · 5-143 (Janith Liyanage, 30.3) · 6-166 (Sadeera Samarawickrama, 35.2) · 7-180 (Mahesh Theekshana, 38.5) · 8-193 (Jeffrey Vandersay, 41.5) · 9-210 (Pramod Madushan, 44.5) · 10-211 (Pavan Rathnayake, 45.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 35/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 40/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 48/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 55/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 55/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 57/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 66/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 71/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 72/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 78/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 78/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 83/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 90/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 92/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 95/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 99/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 101/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 105/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 108/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 112/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 117/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 123/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 129/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 131/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 136/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 140/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 144/5 |
| 32 | 2 | 146/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 149/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 154/5 |
| 35 | 11 | 165/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 167/6 |
| 37 | 4 | 171/6 |
| 38 | 8 | 179/6 |
| 39 | 2 | 181/7 |
| 40 | 4 | 185/7 |
| 41 | 6 | 191/7 |
| 42 | 6 | 197/8 |
| 43 | 1 | 198/8 |
| 44 | 5 | 203/8 |
| 45 | 7 | 210/9 |
| 46 | 1 | 211/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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