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Photo: Yorkspotter
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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India tour of England · 2026 · Men
19 Jul 2026 · ODI
Lord's · Venue photographIndia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 34%; England batted first.
On 19 Jul 2026, England played India at Lord's. Recorded result: England won by 27 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.
England's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.