GermanyversusAustria

Austria more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Germany (1,708 vs 1,491 on our results rating)
• Germany are playing at home in Germany
• In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Germany won 4 and Austria won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Germany started on 28%; Germany batted first.

Germany's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Austria: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.4: Waqar Zalmai to Musaddiq Ahmed, six by Musaddiq Ahmed. Germany up from 28% to 34%.
2. 2.2: Waqar Zalmai to Musaddiq Ahmed, six by Musaddiq Ahmed. Germany up from 50% to 55%.
3. 2.5: Waqar Zalmai to B Kohler-Cadmore, six by B Kohler-Cadmore. Germany up from 58% to 64%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.