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Photo: Marc Dalmulder from Hamlyn Terrace, Australia
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
4 Feb 2024 · ODI
Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 85%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alick Athanazecaught · Sean Abbott · Aaron Hardie 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sean Abbott · b Aaron Hardie | 11 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 78.57 |
| Justin Greavescaught · Will Sutherland · Josh Hazlewood 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Sutherland · b Josh Hazlewood | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Kjorn Ottleycaught · Josh Inglis · Sean Abbott 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Inglis · b Sean Abbott | 8 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
 Shai Hopebowled · Josh Hazlewood0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Josh Hazlewood | 29 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 44.62 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Josh Inglis · Sean Abbott 2 fours · 1 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 37%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 40 |
| 51 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 78.43 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Cameron Green · Sean Abbott2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Sean Abbott | 25 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 60.98 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdcaught · Sean Abbott · Will Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sean Abbott · b Will Sutherland | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordelbw · Josh Hazlewood 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Josh Hazlewood | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephcaught · MW Harvey · Will Sutherland 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · MW Harvey · b Will Sutherland | 19 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 126.67 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motielbw · Adam Zampa 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Adam Zampa | 7 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 31.82 |
|---|
| Oshane Thomasnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 1 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 43 | 3 | 5.38 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Hardie2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 27 | 1 | 3.38 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
 Will Sutherland0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.3 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 3.26 | 1 | 0 |
1-19 (Alick Athanaze, 3.3) · 2-21 (Justin Greaves, 4.4) · 3-34 (Kjorn Ottley, 9.0) · 4-87 (Shai Hope, 22.4) · 5-108 (Keacy Carty, 28.1) · 6-126 (Romario Shepherd, 32.3) · 7-134 (Matthew Forde, 34.1) · 8-157 (Alzarri Joseph, 37.5) · 9-167 (Roston Chase, 40.5) · 10-175 (Gudakesh Motie, 43.3)
Recorded target: 259 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 22/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 25/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 32/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 32/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 34/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 40/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 48/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 49/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 53/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 56/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 57/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 63/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 67/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 70/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 72/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 76/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 83/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 84/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 87/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 92/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 96/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 98/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 99/4 |
| 28 | 9 | 108/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 110/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 113/5 |
| 31 | 8 | 121/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 124/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 127/6 |
| 34 | 7 | 134/6 |
| 35 | 6 | 140/7 |
| 36 | 4 | 144/7 |
| 37 | 10 | 154/7 |
| 38 | 3 | 157/8 |
| 39 | 2 | 159/8 |
| 40 | 1 | 160/8 |
| 41 | 7 | 167/9 |
| 42 | 2 | 169/9 |
| 43 | 6 | 175/9 |
| 44 | 0 | 175/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Sutherland: @evermorestation on Twitter · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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