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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier · 2026 · Men
18 May 2026 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Papua New Guinea more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 46%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendel Kadowaki-Fleminglbw · Sese Bau 4 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Sese Bau | 45 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 136.36 |
| Abhishek Anandcaught · Gaba Frank · Sese Bau 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gaba Frank · b Sese Bau | 15 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 93.75 |
| Esam Rahmancaught · Gaba Frank · Assad Vala 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gaba Frank · b Assad Vala | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
| S Ravichandranstumped · Hila Vare · Lega Siaka 0 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Hila Vare · b Lega Siaka | 19 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 95.00 |
| Ibrahim Takahashirun out · Sese Bau, Hila Vare · Lega Siaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sese Bau, Hila Vare | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| caught · Gaba Frank · b Sese Bau |
| 9 |
| 9 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| W Miyauchirun out · Patrick Nou, Hila Vare · John Kariko 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Patrick Nou, Hila Vare | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| A Patmorenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Charlie Hara-Hinzenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sese Bau0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 3 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Aue Oru0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Assad Vala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kariko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Alei Nao0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Lega Siaka1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Gaba Frank0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-39 (Abhishek Anand, 6.1) · 2-51 (Esam Rahman, 8.4) · 3-78 (Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming, 10.3) · 4-80 (Ibrahim Takahashi, 11.3) · 5-95 (R Sakurano-Thomas, 14.1) · 6-99 (S Ravichandran, 15.4) · 7-109 (W Miyauchi, 17.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 39/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 42/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 46/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 52/2 |
| 10 | 19 | 71/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 80/3 |
| 12 | 0 | 80/4 |
| 13 | 7 | 87/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 95/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 97/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 101/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 105/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 110/7 |
| 19 | 6 | 116/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 121/7 |
Assad Vala: LondonWriting · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
