EnglandversusSri Lanka

12 Jun 2026 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 87 runs

England20.0 overs219/1 Sri Lanka20.0 overs132/10 Edgbaston ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

75%England25%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,694 vs 1,607 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 6 and Sri Lanka won 2
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 73%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

England's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 27%).

Biggest swings

1.4: M Ayodhya to DN Wyatt, four by DN Wyatt. England up from 76% to 78%.
6.1: BMSM Kumari to DN Wyatt, 1 run to DN Wyatt. England up from 85% to 87%.
6.4: BMSM Kumari to AE Jones, four by AE Jones. England up from 89% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England219/1 Sri Lanka132/10

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

132/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnelbw · Lauren Bell 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Lauren Bell	6	9	1	0	66.67
Chamari Atapattucaught · Danielle Wyatt · Charlie Dean 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Danielle Wyatt · b Charlie Dean	4	7	0	0	57.14
Imesha Dulanicaught · Freya Kemp · Linsey Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Freya Kemp · b Linsey Smith	7	9	1	0	77.78
Harshitha Madavibowled · Freya Kemp 3 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Freya Kemp	29	18	3	1	161.11

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lauren Bell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	1	5.00	2
Linsey Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Charlie Dean0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	2	6.00	0
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	0
Danielle Gibson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	1
Freya Kemp0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	4	5.50	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	5	14/0
3	8	22/1
4	6	28/2
5	9	37/2
6	2	39/3
7	13	52/3
8	6	58/4
9	11	69/5
10	8	77/5
11	7	84/5
12	6	90/5
13	2	92/8
14	7	99/8
15	6	105/8
16	5	110/8
17	4	114/8
18	10	124/8
19	3	127/8
20	5	132/10

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