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Photo: Yorkspotter
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
New Zealand tour of England · 2026 · Men
4 Jun 2026 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · Harry Brook · Gus Atkinson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Gus Atkinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Devon Conwaycaught · Jacob Bethell · Ben Stokes 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Ben Stokes | 41 | 91 | 4 | 0 | 45.05 |
 Kane Williamsonlbw · Josh Tongue2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Josh Tongue | 18 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 |
 |
| bowled · b Gus Atkinson |
| 0 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Rachin Ravindrabowled · Ollie Robinson1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ollie Robinson | 8 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 38.10 |
|---|
| Daryl Mitchelllbw · Ollie Robinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ollie Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Tom Blundelllbw · Josh Tongue0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Josh Tongue | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipsnot out 7 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 44* | 52 | 7 | 1 | 84.62 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught · Jamie Smith · Gus Atkinson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Gus Atkinson | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Kyle Jamiesoncaught · Ben Duckett · Gus Atkinson1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Gus Atkinson | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Matt Henrybowled · Gus Atkinson0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gus Atkinson | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 0 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Atkinson3 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 11.3 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 2.61 | 0 | 1 |
 Ollie Robinson2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 13.0 | 2 | 38 | 2 | 2.92 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Tongue2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.0 | 2 | 48 | 2 | 3.69 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Stokes0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-0 (Tom Latham, 0.3) · 2-29 (Kane Williamson, 10.4) · 3-36 (William O’Rourke, 11.5) · 4-53 (Rachin Ravindra, 18.0) · 5-53 (Daryl Mitchell, 19.3) · 6-58 (Tom Blundell, 22.4) · 7-111 (Devon Conway, 34.0) · 8-116 (Nathan Smith, 34.4) · 9-124 (Kyle Jamieson, 36.5) · 10-138 (Matt Henry, 40.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 13/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 13/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 19/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 20/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 24/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 29/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 29/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 36/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 37/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 43/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 44/3 |
| 16 | 0 | 44/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 49/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 53/4 |
| 19 | 0 | 53/4 |
| 20 | 1 | 54/5 |
| 21 | 1 | 55/5 |
| 22 | 0 | 55/5 |
| 23 | 8 | 63/6 |
| 24 | 8 | 71/6 |
| 25 | 6 | 77/6 |
| 26 | 10 | 87/6 |
| 27 | 3 | 90/6 |
| 28 | 2 | 92/6 |
| 29 | 4 | 96/6 |
| 30 | 5 | 101/6 |
| 31 | 3 | 104/6 |
| 32 | 1 | 105/6 |
| 33 | 0 | 105/6 |
| 34 | 6 | 111/7 |
| 35 | 7 | 118/8 |
| 36 | 2 | 120/8 |
| 37 | 4 | 124/9 |
| 38 | 10 | 134/9 |
| 39 | 0 | 134/9 |
| 40 | 4 | 138/9 |
| 41 | 0 | 138/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Ollie Robinson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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