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Photo: Yorkspotter
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
New Zealand tour of England · 2026 · Men
4 Jun 2026 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettlbw · Nathan Smith2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Smith | 19 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 51.35 |
| Emilio Gaycaught · Daryl Mitchell · Kyle Jamieson 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Kyle Jamieson | 8 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Jacob Bethelllbw · William O’Rourke 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b William O’Rourke | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
 Joe Rootcaught · Tom Blundell · William O’Rourke0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b William O’Rourke |
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 12.50 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Kyle Jamieson · Nathan Smith10 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Jamieson · b Nathan Smith | 56 | 71 | 10 | 0 | 78.87 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithbowled · Kyle Jamieson0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kyle Jamieson | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Ben Stokescaught · Kane Williamson · Kyle Jamieson2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Kyle Jamieson | 12 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 52.17 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonlbw · Kyle Jamieson 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kyle Jamieson | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
|---|
 Ollie Robinsoncaught · Tom Blundell · Kyle Jamieson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Kyle Jamieson | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Josh Tonguenot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 23 | 2 | 0 | 43.48 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashircaught · Kane Williamson · Nathan Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Nathan Smith | 14 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 73.68 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 0 | 62 | 5 | 4.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.4 | 1 | 38 | 3 | 3.56 | 0 | 1 |
 William O’Rourke3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 2.27 | 0 | 0 |
1-16 (Emilio Gay, 5.3) · 2-31 (Ben Duckett, 11.3) · 3-33 (Jacob Bethell, 12.4) · 4-34 (Joe Root, 14.4) · 5-55 (Jamie Smith, 19.3) · 6-94 (Ben Stokes, 26.5) · 7-108 (Gus Atkinson, 31.0) · 8-113 (Harry Brook, 31.5) · 9-118 (Ollie Robinson, 33.3) · 10-140 (Shoaib Bashir, 39.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 21/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 21/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 24/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 27/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 31/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 33/3 |
| 14 | 1 | 34/3 |
| 15 | 0 | 34/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 38/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 44/4 |
| 18 | 7 | 51/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 55/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 61/5 |
| 21 | 1 | 62/5 |
| 22 | 6 | 68/5 |
| 23 | 2 | 70/5 |
| 24 | 1 | 71/5 |
| 25 | 8 | 79/5 |
| 26 | 4 | 83/5 |
| 27 | 11 | 94/6 |
| 28 | 5 | 99/6 |
| 29 | 1 | 100/6 |
| 30 | 2 | 102/6 |
| 31 | 6 | 108/7 |
| 32 | 9 | 117/8 |
| 33 | 1 | 118/8 |
| 34 | 2 | 120/9 |
| 35 | 6 | 126/9 |
| 36 | 6 | 132/9 |
| 37 | 0 | 132/9 |
| 38 | 4 | 136/9 |
| 39 | 0 | 136/9 |
| 40 | 4 | 140/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Ollie Robinson: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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