SwedenversusNorway

Norway more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than Sweden (1,521 vs 1,446 on our results rating)
• In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Norway won 2 and Sweden won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Sweden started on 31%; Sweden batted first.

Sweden's chances ranged from 11% to 88% during the match (Norway: 12% to 89%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 19.1: J Stanigze to Vinay Ravi, six by Vinay Ravi. Norway up from 12% to 41%.
2. 2nd inns 19.2: J Stanigze to Vinay Ravi, four by Vinay Ravi. Norway up from 41% to 71%.
3. 2nd inns 19.6: J Stanigze to Ahmadullah Shinwari, four by Ahmadullah Shinwari. Norway up from 65% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.