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India tour of England · 2026 · Men
16 Jul 2026 · ODI
Sophia Gardens, Cardiff · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 66%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettcaught · Ishan Kishan · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Jasprit Bumrah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Ishan Kishan · Prasidh Krishna 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Prasidh Krishna | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
 Joe Rootnot out9 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 99* | 133 | 9 | 0 | 74.44 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Ishan Kishan · Gurnoor Brar2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Gurnoor Brar | 16 | 16 | 2 | 1 |
India's chances ranged from 0% to 86% during the match (England: 14% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 100.00 |
 Sam Currancaught · Ishan Kishan · Shivam Dube4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ishan Kishan · b Shivam Dube | 26 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 83.87 |
|---|
 Jos Buttlerbowled · Axar Patel1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Axar Patel | 17 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 94.44 |
|---|
 Will Jackscaught · Virat Kohli · Gurnoor Brar2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Gurnoor Brar | 30 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 68.18 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsonnot out 3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 23* | 16 | 3 | 1 | 143.75 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 12 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 2 wides · 3 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 4.50 | 2 | 3 |
| Prasidh Krishna1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.1 | 1 | 52 | 1 | 5.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Gurnoor Brar0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 67 | 2 | 6.70 | 8 | 0 |
 Shivam Dube0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Axar Patel1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 3.89 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Ben Duckett, 0.1) · 2-8 (Jacob Bethell, 3.4) · 3-53 (Harry Brook, 10.4) · 4-94 (Sam Curran, 19.1) · 5-125 (Jos Buttler, 25.4) · 6-197 (Will Jacks, 40.0)
Recorded target: 234 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 12/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 14/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 20/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 29/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 39/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 42/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 51/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 54/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 56/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 60/3 |
| 14 | 6 | 66/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 68/3 |
| 16 | 8 | 76/3 |
| 17 | 11 | 87/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 92/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 94/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 100/4 |
| 21 | 11 | 111/4 |
| 22 | 3 | 114/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 117/4 |
| 24 | 3 | 120/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 125/4 |
| 26 | 0 | 125/5 |
| 27 | 5 | 130/5 |
| 28 | 1 | 131/5 |
| 29 | 13 | 144/5 |
| 30 | 4 | 148/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 152/5 |
| 32 | 1 | 153/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 157/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 161/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 167/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 172/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 174/5 |
| 38 | 8 | 182/5 |
| 39 | 9 | 191/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 197/6 |
| 41 | 5 | 202/6 |
| 42 | 12 | 214/6 |
| 43 | 8 | 222/6 |
| 44 | 8 | 230/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 235/6 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ishan Kishan: Tata Ipl 2022 · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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