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West Indies Women tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Women
15 Jun 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 55%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 69% during the match (Sri Lanka: 31% to 100%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vishmi Gunaratnecaught and bowled · Aaliyah Alleyne 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 40 | 51 | 5 | 0 | 78.43 |
 Chamari Atapattubowled · Aaliyah Alleyne6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aaliyah Alleyne | 38 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 105.56 |
 Harshitha Madavinot out5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 44* | 53 | 5 | 0 | 83.02 |
 Kavisha Dilharistumped · Rashada Williams · Afy Fletcher0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Rashada Williams · b Afy Fletcher | 0 | 7 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Hasini Pereralbw · Afy Fletcher7 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Afy Fletcher | 43 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 72.88 |
|---|
 Nilakshi de Silvanot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 2 | 2 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 13 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shamilia Connell0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 7.17 | 4 | 1 |
 Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 1 |
 Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 6.60 | 5 | 0 |
 Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Afy Fletcher1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.1 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaliyah Alleyne1 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 3.67 | 3 | 1 |
 Stafanie Taylor0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-88 (Vishmi Gunaratne, 13.2) · 2-100 (Chamari Atapattu, 15.2) · 3-101 (Kavisha Dilhari, 16.3) · 4-174 (Hasini Perera, 32.5)
Recorded target: 196 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 33/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 43/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 53/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 59/0 |
| 11 | 13 | 72/0 |
| 12 | 9 | 81/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 88/0 |
| 14 | 7 | 95/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 100/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 101/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 101/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 105/3 |
| 19 | 10 | 115/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 116/3 |
| 21 | 5 | 121/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 127/3 |
| 23 | 12 | 139/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 143/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 144/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 145/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 148/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 152/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 158/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 160/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 166/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 173/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 178/4 |
| 34 | 16 | 194/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 198/4 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamilia Connell: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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