HampshireversusEssex

7 Jun 2026 · T20

The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hampshire won by 55 runs

Hampshire20.0 overs155/4 Essex20.0 overs100/9 The County Ground, Chelmsford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hampshire started on 43%; Hampshire batted first.

Hampshire’s chance of winning (%) · Essex is the rest

Hampshire's chances ranged from 31% to 100% during the match (Essex: 0% to 69%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.2: GL Adams to G Scrivens, G Scrivens out. Hampshire up from 44% to 56%.
2nd inns 3.6: GL Adams to L Heap, L Heap out. Hampshire up from 57% to 70%.
2nd inns 5.6: GL Adams to AJ Macleod, AJ Macleod out. Hampshire up from 74% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.