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Africa Continental Cup · 2024/25 · Men
13 Dec 2024 · T20
Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 94%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 84% to 100% during the match (Botswana: 0% to 16%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinoo Balakrishnancaught · Riazat Ali Shah · F Nsubuga 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Riazat Ali Shah · b F Nsubuga | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 41.67 |
| Karabo Motlhankacaught · Raghav Dhawan · Henry Ssenyondo 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Raghav Dhawan · b Henry Ssenyondo | 28 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 73.68 |
| M Kasselmancaught · Robinson Obuya · Cosmas Kyewuta 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Robinson Obuya · b Cosmas Kyewuta | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Reginald Nehondelbw · F Nsubuga 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b F Nsubuga | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Tharindu Pereranot out 4 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 48* | 36 | 4 | 2 | 133.33 |
| bowled · b Juma Miyagi |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Thatayaone Tshosecaught · Riazat Ali Shah · Cosmas Kyewuta 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Riazat Ali Shah · b Cosmas Kyewuta | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| K Pietbowled · F Nsubuga 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b F Nsubuga | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| B Khumalonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F Nsubuga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 3.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Cosmas Kyewuta0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 1 | 1 |
| Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Henry Ssenyondo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Riazat Ali Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 2 |
| J Baguma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-9 (Vinoo Balakrishnan, 3.0) · 2-10 (M Kasselman, 3.5) · 3-11 (Reginald Nehonde, 5.0) · 4-61 (Karabo Motlhanka, 13.2) · 5-79 (P Silas, 15.1) · 6-95 (Thatayaone Tshose, 18.2) · 7-107 (K Piet, 19.4)
Recorded target: 142 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 10/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 11/3 |
| 6 | 7 | 18/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 22/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 30/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 36/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 39/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 48/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 54/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 60/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 63/4 |
| 15 | 15 | 78/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 81/5 |
| 17 | 2 | 83/5 |
| 18 | 9 | 92/5 |
| 19 | 11 | 103/6 |
| 20 | 6 | 109/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.