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Ireland tour of Namibia · 2026/27 · Men
30 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 35%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louren Steenkampcaught · Curtis Campher · Jai Moondra 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Curtis Campher · b Jai Moondra | 21 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 61.76 |
 Malan Krugercaught · Lorcan Tucker · Jai Moondra0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Jai Moondra | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jan Frylinckcaught · Andrew Balbirnie · Jai Moondra 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Jai Moondra | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 30.77 |
| A Busing-Volschenkcaught · Andrew Balbirnie · Curtis Campher 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andrew Balbirnie · b Curtis Campher | 8 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 42.11 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Lorcan Tucker · Jordan Neill1 fours · 1 sixes |
Ireland's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 74%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Jordan Neill |
| 23 |
| 34 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 67.65 |
| Gerhard Erasmuslbw · L McCarthy 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b L McCarthy | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
|---|
| Zane Greenbowled · Jai Moondra 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jai Moondra | 45 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 77.59 |
|---|
| JJ Smitcaught · Lorcan Tucker · Matthew Humphreys 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Matthew Humphreys | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmannbowled · Jai Moondra 3 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Jai Moondra | 40 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 117.65 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtznot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 13 | 1 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
| Jack Brassellcaught · George Dockrell · Jai Moondra 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Dockrell · b Jai Moondra | 11 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 64.71 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Moondra1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 26 | 6 | 2.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Neill1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 1 |
| L McCarthy0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 5.14 | 3 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 3.83 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Malan Kruger, 2.2) · 2-15 (Jan Frylinck, 6.3) · 3-32 (Louren Steenkamp, 11.0) · 4-35 (A Busing-Volschenk, 12.3) · 5-45 (Gerhard Erasmus, 15.1) · 6-78 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 23.2) · 7-88 (JJ Smit, 26.3) · 8-145 (Zane Green, 34.5) · 9-152 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 36.1) · 10-168 (Jack Brassell, 41.0)
Recorded target: 299 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 1/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 5/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 9/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 16/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 17/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 21/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 29/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 32/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 34/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 35/4 |
| 14 | 4 | 39/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 45/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 50/5 |
| 17 | 1 | 51/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 56/5 |
| 19 | 4 | 60/5 |
| 20 | 2 | 62/5 |
| 21 | 9 | 71/5 |
| 22 | 3 | 74/5 |
| 23 | 3 | 77/5 |
| 24 | 4 | 81/6 |
| 25 | 4 | 85/6 |
| 26 | 2 | 87/6 |
| 27 | 11 | 98/7 |
| 28 | 2 | 100/7 |
| 29 | 8 | 108/7 |
| 30 | 17 | 125/7 |
| 31 | 5 | 130/7 |
| 32 | 7 | 137/7 |
| 33 | 4 | 141/7 |
| 34 | 2 | 143/7 |
| 35 | 2 | 145/8 |
| 36 | 7 | 152/8 |
| 37 | 3 | 155/9 |
| 38 | 1 | 156/9 |
| 39 | 2 | 158/9 |
| 40 | 4 | 162/9 |
| 41 | 6 | 168/10 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
