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Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men
28 Dec 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Canterbury started on 52%; Canterbury batted first.
Canterbury's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Otago: 0% to 74%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 28 Dec 2025, Canterbury played Otago at Molyneux Park, Alexandra. Recorded result: Canterbury won by 28 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.