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Kwibuka Women's Twenty20 Tournament · 2024 · Women
30 May 2024 · T20
Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Rwanda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Rwanda started on 73%; Rwanda batted first.
Rwanda's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (Cameroon: 0% to 33%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLN Sissakocaught · M Uwase · Rosine Irera 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Uwase · b Rosine Irera | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
| MSN Ekanirun out · M Uwase, Geovanis Uwase · B Murekatete 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · M Uwase, Geovanis Uwase | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| CD Mboebowled · A Ikuzwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Ikuzwe | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 29.17 |
| B Walumacaught and bowled · Henriette Ishimwe 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Henriette Ishimwe | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 109.09 |
| O Ranedoumounbowled · J Nyirankundineza 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b J Nyirankundineza | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 112.50 |
| bowled · b Henriette Ishimwe |
| 4 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| SA Nonobowled · A Ikuzwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Ikuzwe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| EGS Kanarun out · C Uwase, Henriette Ishimwe · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · C Uwase, Henriette Ishimwe | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| TMA Lesliecaught and bowled · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Henriette Ishimwe | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| CN Messinabowled · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Henriette Ishimwe | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| E Guehoadanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Murekatete0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Rosine Irera2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Marie Bimenyimana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| J Nyirankundineza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Henriette Ishimwe1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 2.84 | 1 | 0 |
| A Ikuzwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| R Shimwamana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (MSN Ekani, 0.1) · 2-3 (MLN Sissako, 3.1) · 3-19 (B Waluma, 6.3) · 4-28 (O Ranedoumoun, 7.5) · 5-36 (ME Bessala, 9.5) · 6-37 (SA Nono, 10.3) · 7-38 (CD Mboe, 11.0) · 8-38 (EGS Kana, 11.1) · 9-38 (TMA Leslie, 11.5) · 10-39 (CN Messina, 13.1)
Recorded target: 142 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 4/2 |
| 5 | 10 | 14/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 16/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 24/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 32/4 |
| 9 | 3 | 35/4 |
| 10 | 1 | 36/5 |
| 11 | 2 | 38/7 |
| 12 | 0 | 38/9 |
| 13 | 1 | 39/9 |
| 14 | 0 | 39/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.