**Newlands, Cape Town**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Paarl RoyalsversusMI Cape Town

19 Jan 2024 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI Cape Town won by 8 wickets

Paarl Royals20.0 overs172/8 MI Cape Town16.5 overs175/2 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Paarl Royals started on 52%; Paarl Royals batted first.

Paarl Royals’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Paarl Royals's chances ranged from 0% to 84% during the match (MI Cape Town: 16% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.1: SM Curran to WJ Lubbe, WJ Lubbe out. MI Cape Town up from 23% to 31%.
12.1: GF Linde to JC Buttler, JC Buttler out. MI Cape Town up from 33% to 40%.
2nd inns 8.1: T Shamsi to HE van der Dussen, HE van der Dussen out. Paarl Royals up from 13% to 22%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.