KuwaitversusNepal

13 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Kuwait won by 3 runs

Kuwait20.0 overs174/7 Nepal19.3 overs171/10 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

37%Kuwait63%Nepal

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 3 and Kuwait won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Kuwait (1,593 vs 1,580 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kuwait started on 34%; Kuwait batted first.

Kuwait’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Kuwait's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 76%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.4: Mohamed Shafeeq to NK Yadav, NK Yadav out. Kuwait up from 34% to 75%.
2nd inns 19.1: A Chenthamara to Basir Ahamad, 0 runs to Basir Ahamad. Nepal up from 15% to 72%.
2nd inns 19.3: A Chenthamara to Basir Ahamad, Basir Ahamad out. Kuwait up from 37% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kuwait174/7 Nepal171/10

Innings 2

Nepal

171/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Yasin Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Yasin Patel	3	7	0	0	42.86
Aasif Sheikhcaught · Clinto Anto · Anudeep Chenthamara 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Clinto Anto · b Anudeep Chenthamara	21	11	3	1	190.91
Rohit Kumarcaught · Bilal Tahir · NT Rajendran 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Bilal Tahir · b NT Rajendran	7	16	0	0	43.75
Kushal Mallacaught · Usman Patel · Anudeep Chenthamara 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Usman Patel · b Anudeep Chenthamara	0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Yasin Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	0	0
Mohamed Shafeeq0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	52	1	13.00	1	0
Anudeep Chenthamara0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	2.3	18	3	7.20	2	1
NT Rajendran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	1	0
Mohomad Aslam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	0	0
Bilal Tahir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	16	22/0
3	2	24/1
4	3	27/3
5	2	29/4
6	9	38/4
7	12	50/4
8	3	53/4
9	4	57/5
10	4	61/5
11	4	65/6
12	11	76/6
13	6	82/7
14	10	92/8
15	9	101/8
16	22	123/8
17	15	138/8
18	14	152/8
19	12	164/9
20	7	171/10

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