West IndiesversusScotland

7 Feb 2026 · T20

Eden Gardens, Kolkata · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 35 runs

West Indies20.0 overs182/5 Scotland18.5 overs147/10 Eden Gardens, Kolkata ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Scotland more likely to win

45%West Indies55%Scotland

Why

In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 1 and West Indies won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than Scotland (1,513 vs 1,513 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 42%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Scotland is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Scotland: 0% to 74%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: R Shepherd to BJ McMullen, BJ McMullen out. West Indies up from 46% to 61%.
2nd inns 14.3: G Motie to TC Bruce, TC Bruce out. West Indies up from 42% to 62%.
2nd inns 16.2: R Shepherd to MH Cross, MH Cross out. West Indies up from 69% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies182/5 Scotland147/10

Innings 2

Scotland

147/1018.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
George Munseycaught · Shimron Hetmyer · Shamar Joseph 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shimron Hetmyer · b Shamar Joseph	19	15	3	0	126.67
Michael Jonescaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Jason Holder 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Jason Holder	1	5	0	0	20.00
Brandon McMullenbowled · Romario Shepherd 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Romario Shepherd	14	12	1	1	116.67
Richie Berringtoncaught · Shamar Joseph · Jason Holder 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Shamar Joseph · b Jason Holder	42	24	3	2	175.00
Tom Brucelbw · Gudakesh Motie 1 fours · 2 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Matthew Forde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	0	0
Jason Holder0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	30	3	7.83	3	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	5	6.67	0	0
Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	2	1
Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1	0
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	26	0	13.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	5	11/1
3	9	20/1
4	9	29/1
5	4	33/2
6	5	38/3
7	5	43/3
8	12	55/3
9	6	61/3
10	11	72/3
11	14	86/3
12	15	101/3
13	13	114/3
14	5	119/4
15	6	125/5
16	7	132/5
17	1	133/9
18	3	136/9
19	11	147/10

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