**Seddon Park, Hamilton**
Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

WellingtonversusCanterbury

26 Jan 2024 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Canterbury won by 4 wickets

Wellington20.0 overs173/7 Canterbury20.0 overs177/6 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Wellington started on 45%; Wellington batted first.

Wellington’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Wellington's chances ranged from 19% to 97% during the match (Canterbury: 3% to 81%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.1: R Ravindra to BJ Jacobs, BJ Jacobs out. Wellington up from 46% to 65%.
2nd inns 19.4: LV van Beek to MJ Henry, six by MJ Henry. Canterbury up from 14% to 63%.
2nd inns 19.6: LV van Beek to ZGF Foulkes, six by ZGF Foulkes. Canterbury up from 57% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Wellington chose to bat
Player of the match: Matt Henry
match referees: K Pulley
reserve umpires: PJ Pasco
tv umpires: Glen Walklin
umpires: CM Brown, WR Knights

Match history & source

On 26 Jan 2024, Wellington played Canterbury at Seddon Park, Hamilton. Recorded result: Canterbury won by 4 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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