PhilippinesversusSouth Korea

1 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Philippines won by 37 runs

Philippines20.0 overs178/5 South Korea20.0 overs141/9 Yeonhui Cricket Ground, Incheon ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Philippines more likely to win

66%Philippines34%South Korea

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Philippines rate stronger than South Korea (1,387 vs 1,297 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Philippines won 2 and South Korea won 0
South Korea are playing at home in South Korea

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Philippines started on 63%; Philippines batted first.

Philippines’s chance of winning (%) · South Korea is the rest

Philippines's chances ranged from 64% to 100% during the match (South Korea: 0% to 36%).

Biggest swings

0.4: Fazil Muhammad to Kulwinderjeet Singh, four by Kulwinderjeet Singh. Philippines up from 65% to 68%.
3.2: Kim Daeyeon to Kulwinderjeet Singh, Kulwinderjeet Singh out. South Korea up from 18% to 22%.
4.5: Aamir Lal to DC Smith, DC Smith out. South Korea up from 16% to 20%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Philippines178/5 South Korea141/9

Innings 2

South Korea

141/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Korea batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Raja Shoaibcaught · Rhys Burinaga · Daniel Smith 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rhys Burinaga · b Daniel Smith	33	40	3	0	82.50
Balage Dilrukshalbw · Huzaifa Mohammed 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Huzaifa Mohammed	2	4	0	0	50.00
Aamir Lalbowled · Daniel Smith 1 fours · 5 sixes	bowled · b Daniel Smith	48	23	1	5	208.70
Alam Nakashlbw · Daniel Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Daniel Smith	16	12	1	0	133.33
Sameera Madurangacaught · M Podosky · LJ Myott 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Podosky · b LJ Myott	11	10	1	0	110.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
J Tuffin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	1
Huzaifa Mohammed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0
KDA Lukies0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	0	8.25	0
LJ Myott0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	0
Daniel Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	3	4.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	5	13/1
3	8	21/1
4	3	24/1
5	7	31/1
6	4	35/1
7	9	44/1
8	7	51/1
9	9	60/1
10	13	73/1
11	4	77/2
12	14	91/2
13	6	97/3
14	12	109/3
15	6	115/4
16	3	118/6
17	5	123/6
18	8	131/6
19	2	133/7
20	8	141/9

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