BahrainversusKenya

Bahrain more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Kenya (1,626 vs 1,524 on our results rating)
• Kenya are playing at home in Kenya
• In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 1 and Kenya won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Bahrain started on 62%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain's chances ranged from 16% to 79% during the match (Kenya: 21% to 84%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 19.2: Asif Shaikh to GM Muthui, four by GM Muthui. Kenya up from 46% to 81%.
2. 2nd inns 19.3: Asif Shaikh to GM Muthui, GM Muthui out. Bahrain up from 19% to 40%.
3. 2nd inns 19.6: Asif Shaikh to LN Oluoch, 2 runs to LN Oluoch. Kenya up from 55% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.