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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
16 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bahamas more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bahamas started on 67%; Bahamas batted first.
Bahamas's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Mexico: 0% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PK Mohanarangamcaught · Antonio Harris · Marc Taylor 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Antonio Harris · b Marc Taylor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Praveen Santhanakrishnancaught · Festus Benn · DG Weakley 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Festus Benn · b DG Weakley | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Rupesh Kumar Singhcaught · Rudolph Fox · Festus Benn 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rudolph Fox · b Festus Benn | 13 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 54.17 |
| Puneet Aroralbw · Marc Taylor 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Marc Taylor | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
| DV Devjani Mutrejalbw · DG Weakley 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b DG Weakley | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
| caught and bowled · b Festus Benn |
| 10 |
| 10 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Shantanu Kavericaught · Festus Benn · Rudolph Fox 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Festus Benn · b Rudolph Fox | 24 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Luis Hermidarun out · J Jemison, K Hinds · K Hinds 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · J Jemison, K Hinds | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Shoaib Rafiqcaught · K Hinds · Festus Benn 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Hinds · b Festus Benn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| R Poojarybowled · K Hinds 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b K Hinds | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Pratik Singh Baisnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Taylor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| DG Weakley1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1.25 | 1 | 0 |
| R Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Festus Benn1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| K Hinds0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Rudolph Fox0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.2 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (PK Mohanarangam, 0.2) · 2-4 (Praveen Santhanakrishnan, 2.0) · 3-17 (Puneet Arora, 4.4) · 4-26 (DV Devjani Mutreja, 7.2) · 5-27 (Rupesh Kumar Singh, 8.1) · 6-40 (R Ankad, 11.0) · 7-51 (Luis Hermida, 13.3) · 8-53 (Shoaib Rafiq, 14.4) · 9-56 (R Poojary, 15.3) · 10-71 (Shantanu Kaveri, 18.2)
Recorded target: 96 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 4/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 8/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 11/2 |
| 5 | 6 | 17/3 |
| 6 | 1 | 18/3 |
| 7 | 8 | 26/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 27/4 |
| 9 | 0 | 27/5 |
| 10 | 7 | 34/5 |
| 11 | 6 | 40/6 |
| 12 | 5 | 45/6 |
| 13 | 4 | 49/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 52/7 |
| 15 | 1 | 53/8 |
| 16 | 3 | 56/9 |
| 17 | 7 | 63/9 |
| 18 | 6 | 69/9 |
| 19 | 2 | 71/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.