IndiaversusSri Lanka

27 Jul 2024 · T20

Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 43 runs

India20.0 overs213/7 Sri Lanka19.2 overs170/10 Pallekele International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

80%India20%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,780 vs 1,536 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and Sri Lanka won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 79%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

India's chances ranged from 64% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 36%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.1: HH Pandya to P Nissanka, six by P Nissanka. Sri Lanka up from 28% to 36%.
2nd inns 14.1: AR Patel to P Nissanka, P Nissanka out. India up from 69% to 80%.
2nd inns 14.6: AR Patel to MDKJ Perera, MDKJ Perera out. India up from 75% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India213/7 Sri Lanka170/10

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

170/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pathum Nissankabowled · Axar Patel 7 fours · 4 sixes	bowled · b Axar Patel	79	48	7	4	164.58
Kusal Mendiscaught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · Arshdeep Singh 7 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · b Arshdeep Singh	45	27	7	1	166.67
Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Ravi Bishnoi · Axar Patel 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ravi Bishnoi · b Axar Patel	20	14	3	0	142.86
Kamindu Mendisbowled · Riyan Parag 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Riyan Parag	12	8	2	0	150.00
Charith Asalankacaught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · Ravi Bishnoi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · b Ravi Bishnoi	0	2	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	2	8.00	0
Mohammed Siraj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	2	9.50	1
Ravi Bishnoi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	0
Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	0	10.25	1
Riyan Parag0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.2	5	3	3.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	4	13/0
3	12	25/0
4	13	38/0
5	11	49/0
6	6	55/0
7	10	65/0
8	12	77/0
9	14	91/1
10	8	99/1
11	7	106/1
12	14	120/1
13	11	131/1
14	9	140/1
15	9	149/3
16	9	158/4
17	5	163/6
18	1	164/7
19	6	170/8
20	0	170/10

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