Sri LankaversusUganda

1 May 2024 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 67 runs

Sri Lanka20.0 overs154/4 Uganda19.2 overs87/10 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

72%Sri Lanka28%Uganda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Uganda (1,625 vs 1,470 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 71%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Uganda is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 70% to 100% during the match (Uganda: 0% to 30%).

Biggest swings

6.6: L Anyait to AC Jayangani, six by AC Jayangani. Sri Lanka up from 77% to 81%.
7.4: J Mbabazi to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. Uganda up from 16% to 20%.
2nd inns 3.2: AC Jayangani to I Nakisuuyi, J Mbabazi out. Sri Lanka up from 90% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka154/4 Uganda87/10

Innings 2

Uganda

87/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Uganda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Janet Mbabazirun out · Harshitha Madavi · Chamari Atapattu 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Harshitha Madavi	14	12	2	116.67
Immaculate Nakisuuyibowled · Chamari Atapattu 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Chamari Atapattu	2	10	0	20.00
Rita Musamalibowled · Inoka Ranaweera 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Inoka Ranaweera	3	8	0	37.50
Kevin Awinocaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Shashini Gimhani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Shashini Gimhani	3	14	0	21.43
Stephanie Nampiinacaught · Chamari Atapattu · Inoka Ranaweera 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Chamari Atapattu · b Inoka Ranaweera	0	2	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kawya Kavindi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	1	5.33	2
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	5	1	1.67	0
Inoshi Priyadharshani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	6	0	2.00	0
Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	2	3.33	0
Shashini Gimhani1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	23	2	5.75	2
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	0	27	2	8.10	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	2	12/0
3	4	16/0
4	1	17/2
5	2	19/2
6	3	22/2
7	3	25/4
8	0	25/4
9	2	27/4
10	8	35/5
11	5	40/5
12	0	40/5
13	11	51/5
14	6	57/5
15	2	59/6
16	14	73/6
17	9	82/7
18	2	84/7
19	3	87/8
20	0	87/10

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