CyprusversusAustria

14 Mar 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Cyprus won by 47 runs

Cyprus20.0 overs174/9 Austria19.3 overs127/10 Happy Valley Ground 2, Episkopi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Austria more likely to win

30%Cyprus70%Austria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Cyprus (1,726 vs 1,550 on our results rating)
Cyprus are playing at home in Cyprus

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Cyprus started on 28%; Cyprus batted first.

Cyprus’s chance of winning (%) · Austria is the rest

Cyprus's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (Austria: 0% to 80%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.2: MPGT Ketiyage to Karanbir Singh, Karanbir Singh out. Cyprus up from 50% to 61%.
2nd inns 2.4: Lovedeep Singh to Bilal Zalmai, Bilal Zalmai out. Cyprus up from 63% to 76%.
2nd inns 4.2: Lovedeep Singh to A Randhawa, A Randhawa out. Cyprus up from 76% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Cyprus174/9 Austria127/10

Innings 2

Austria

127/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Austria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Karanbir Singhcaught · A Shahi · MPGT Ketiyage 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · A Shahi · b MPGT Ketiyage	7	6	0	1	116.67
Bilal Zalmaihit wicket · Lovedeep Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes	hit wicket · b Lovedeep Singh	5	7	1	0	71.43
Amar Naeemcaught · AUKDS Kalugala · MPGT Ketiyage 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AUKDS Kalugala · b MPGT Ketiyage	10	7	2	0	142.86
A Randhawabowled · Lovedeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Lovedeep Singh	5	8	0	0	62.50
Aqib Iqbalcaught · AA Senn · R Siriwardena 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AA Senn · b R Siriwardena	25	20	4	0	125.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lovedeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	2	5.00	0
MPGT Ketiyage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	2	7.67	0
Adam Senn0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	0	4.33	0
A Shahi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	0
R Siriwardena0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	20	3	8.00	2
Karan Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	2	9/1
3	4	13/2
4	10	23/2
5	4	27/3
6	11	38/4
7	4	42/4
8	13	55/4
9	6	61/4
10	9	70/4
11	3	73/4
12	7	80/5
13	6	86/5
14	11	97/6
15	7	104/7
16	6	110/7
17	7	117/7
18	2	119/9
19	5	124/9
20	3	127/10

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