**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Joburg Super KingsversusPaarl Royals

20 Jan 2025 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Paarl Royals won by 6 wickets

Joburg Super Kings20.0 overs146/6 Paarl Royals19.1 overs150/4 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Joburg Super Kings started on 46%; Joburg Super Kings batted first.

Joburg Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Joburg Super Kings's chances ranged from 1% to 52% during the match (Paarl Royals: 48% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: BC Fortuin to DP Conway, DP Conway out. Paarl Royals up from 49% to 59%.
5.1: Mujeeb Ur Rahman to JL du Plooy, JL du Plooy out. Paarl Royals up from 65% to 74%.
2nd inns 4.3: GC Viljoen to JE Root, JE Root out. Joburg Super Kings up from 17% to 26%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.