ThailandversusCambodia

20 Nov 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 16 runs

Thailand20.0 overs178/5 Cambodia20.0 overs162/7 West End Park International Cricket Stadium, Doha ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

69%Thailand31%Cambodia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Cambodia (1,473 vs 1,341 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 65%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Cambodia is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 65% to 100% during the match (Cambodia: 0% to 35%).

Biggest swings

6.2: Utkarsh Jain to AP Yadav, AP Yadav out. Cambodia up from 22% to 27%.
2nd inns 15.5: N Salekar to E Beukes, six by E Beukes. Cambodia up from 14% to 21%.
2nd inns 16.4: Sarawut Maliwan to Luqman Butt, Luqman Butt out. Thailand up from 82% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand178/5 Cambodia162/7

Innings 2

Cambodia

162/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Cambodia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Salvin Stanlyrun out · Akshaykumar Yadav, Y Saranonnakkun · Jandre Coetzee 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Akshaykumar Yadav, Y Saranonnakkun	0	1	0	0	0.00
Lakshit Guptarun out · Akshaykumar Yadav, N Salekar · Jandre Coetzee 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Akshaykumar Yadav, N Salekar	7	9	1	0	77.78
M Chadhabowled · Sarawut Maliwan 6 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sarawut Maliwan	44	41	6	0	107.32
US Hathinjarcaught · S Desungnoen · Nopphon Senamontree 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S Desungnoen · b Nopphon Senamontree	9	9	2	0	100.00
Luqman Buttcaught · N Salekar · Sarawut Maliwan 5 fours · 4 sixes	caught · N Salekar · b Sarawut Maliwan	60	31	5	4

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jandre Coetzee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
N Salekar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	0	9.75	1
Kamron Senamontree0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	39	0	13.00	0
Nopphon Senamontree0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	2	7.75	2
Sarawut Maliwan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	0
S Desungnoen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	10	13/1
3	2	15/2
4	5	20/2
5	11	31/2
6	5	36/3
7	10	46/3
8	3	49/3
9	8	57/3
10	8	65/3
11	2	67/3
12	11	78/3
13	4	82/4
14	19	101/4
15	16	117/4
16	15	132/4
17	6	138/5
18	12	150/6
19	3	153/7
20	9	162/7

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