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Asian Games Men's Cricket Competition · 2026 · Men
3 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 48%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 86%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saif Hassancaught · Sohan de Livera · Nuwan Thushara 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sohan de Livera · b Nuwan Thushara | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Tanzid Hasancaught · W Sahan · Tharindu Ratnayake 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · W Sahan · b Tharindu Ratnayake | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Litton Dasbowled · Nuwan Thushara0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nuwan Thushara | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Sohan de Livera · Vijayakanth Viyaskanth 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sohan de Livera · b Vijayakanth Viyaskanth | 20 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 76.92 |
 |
| caught · Nuwanidu Fernando · b Tharindu Ratnayake |
| 11 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 183.33 |
 Yasir Alibowled · W Sahan2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b W Sahan | 21 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 131.25 |
|---|
| Mahedi Hasanlbw · Vijayakanth Viyaskanth 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Vijayakanth Viyaskanth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught and bowled · W Sahan1 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b W Sahan | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Nasum Ahmedcaught · Ashen Bandara · Sahan Arachchige2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ashen Bandara · b Sahan Arachchige | 26 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 92.86 |
|---|
| Aliss Islambowled · Dushan Hemantha 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dushan Hemantha | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmannot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuwan Thushara1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Tharindu Ratnayake0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Vijayakanth Viyaskanth0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Sahan Arachchige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.3 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| W Sahan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Dushan Hemantha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Saif Hassan, 1.0) · 2-0 (Tanzid Hasan, 1.2) · 3-4 (Litton Das, 2.1) · 4-18 (Tawhid Hridoy, 3.5) · 5-50 (Parvez Hossain Emon, 8.2) · 6-50 (Mahedi Hasan, 8.3) · 7-67 (Rishad Hossain, 10.0) · 8-72 (Yasir Ali, 11.2) · 9-87 (Aliss Islam, 14.5) · 10-102 (Nasum Ahmed, 17.3)
Recorded target: 166 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 4/2 |
| 3 | 7 | 11/3 |
| 4 | 11 | 22/4 |
| 5 | 3 | 25/4 |
| 6 | 5 | 30/4 |
| 7 | 7 | 37/4 |
| 8 | 9 | 46/4 |
| 9 | 14 | 60/6 |
| 10 | 7 | 67/7 |
| 11 | 5 | 72/7 |
| 12 | 2 | 74/8 |
| 13 | 7 | 81/8 |
| 14 | 3 | 84/8 |
| 15 | 4 | 88/9 |
| 16 | 6 | 94/9 |
| 17 | 8 | 102/9 |
| 18 | 0 | 102/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Yasir Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Ashen Bandara: Yohan Mahima Perera · CC BY 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nasum Ahmed: Cricfrenzy Tube · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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