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Asian Games Men's Cricket Competition · 2026 · Men
3 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 48%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 86%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lasith Croospullecaught · Yasir Ali · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Yasir Ali · b Mahedi Hasan | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Sineth Jayawardenabowled · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mahedi Hasan | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Sohan de Liverarun out · Litton Das, Mustafizur Rahman · Aliss Islam 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Litton Das, Mustafizur Rahman | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
| Nuwanidu Fernandocaught · Litton Das · Aliss Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Aliss Islam | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Sahan Arachchigebowled · Saif Hassan 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saif Hassan | 33 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 89.19 |
 Ashen Bandaracaught · Mustafizur Rahman · Rishad Hossain3 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Mustafizur Rahman · b Rishad Hossain |
| 18 |
| 24 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 75.00 |
| Tharindu Ratnayakecaught · Rishad Hossain · Mustafizur Rahman 7 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Rishad Hossain · b Mustafizur Rahman | 65 | 32 | 7 | 5 | 203.13 |
|---|
| Dushan Hemanthacaught · Tanzid Hasan · Mustafizur Rahman 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanzid Hasan · b Mustafizur Rahman | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| W Sahannot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Vijayakanth Viyaskanthbowled · Saif Hassan 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Saif Hassan | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Nuwan Thusharanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 17 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 5 | 0 |
| Aliss Islam0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 |
 Nasum Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 11.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Saif Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 9.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 9 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 14.33 | 9 | 2 |
1-7 (Sineth Jayawardena, 2.1) · 2-12 (Lasith Croospulle, 2.5) · 3-18 (Nuwanidu Fernando, 3.1) · 4-21 (Sohan de Livera, 3.5) · 5-54 (Ashen Bandara, 10.5) · 6-147 (Tharindu Ratnayake, 18.1) · 7-149 (Dushan Hemantha, 18.4) · 8-157 (Sahan Arachchige, 19.3) · 9-163 (Vijayakanth Viyaskanth, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 18/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 21/4 |
| 5 | 3 | 24/4 |
| 6 | 5 | 29/4 |
| 7 | 3 | 32/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 35/4 |
| 9 | 6 | 41/4 |
| 10 | 10 | 51/4 |
| 11 | 3 | 54/5 |
| 12 | 8 | 62/5 |
| 13 | 1 | 63/5 |
| 14 | 25 | 88/5 |
| 15 | 16 | 104/5 |
| 16 | 11 | 115/5 |
| 17 | 11 | 126/5 |
| 18 | 21 | 147/5 |
| 19 | 7 | 154/7 |
| 20 | 11 | 165/9 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Yasir Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Ashen Bandara: Yohan Mahima Perera · CC BY 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nasum Ahmed: Cricfrenzy Tube · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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