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Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2024 · Women
25 Apr 2024 · T20
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
Zimbabwe more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 66%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (Vanuatu: 26% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 25 Apr 2024, Zimbabwe played Vanuatu at Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi. Recorded result: Vanuatu won by 6 wickets.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.