Hong KongversusMalaysia

11 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 28 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs114/4 Malaysia18.5 overs86/10 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

92%Hong Kong8%Malaysia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Malaysia (1,624 vs 1,333 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 7 and Malaysia won 1
Hong Kong are playing at home in Hong Kong

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 93%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Malaysia is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (Malaysia: 0% to 24%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: Joyleen Kaur to Mas Elysa, Mas Elysa out. Hong Kong up from 76% to 85%.
2nd inns 7.2: S Parker to Nur Dania Syuhada, Nur Dania Syuhada out. Hong Kong up from 81% to 89%.
2nd inns 11.2: Iqra Sahar to Mahirah Izzati Ismail, Mahirah Izzati Ismail out. Hong Kong up from 86% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong114/4 Malaysia86/10

Innings 2

Malaysia

86/1018.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malaysia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nazatul Hidayah Husnabowled · Kary Chan 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kary Chan	9	7	2	0	128.57
Winifred Duraisingamcaught · M Bibi · M Wai Siu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Bibi · b M Wai Siu	1	5	0	0	20.00
Mas Elysalbw · Joyleen Kaur 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Joyleen Kaur	15	14	1	0	107.14
Mahirah Ismailcaught and bowled · Iqra Sahar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Iqra Sahar	20	28	0	0	71.43
Nur Dania Syuhadalbw · S Parker 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b S Parker	1	2	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Iqra Sahar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	1
M Wai Siu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	2	4.67	0
Kary Chan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	12	3	3.13	0
S Parker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	0
Joyleen Kaur0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	2	3.50	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	2	12/1
3	2	14/2
4	7	21/2
5	7	28/2
6	6	34/2
7	8	42/3
8	3	45/4
9	2	47/4
10	6	53/4
11	2	55/4
12	2	57/5
13	2	59/6
14	9	68/6
15	1	69/6
16	5	74/6
17	5	79/7
18	5	84/8
19	2	86/10

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