United Arab EmiratesversusBahrain

13 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

United Arab Emirates won by 37 runs

United Arab Emirates20.0 overs236/6 Bahrain20.0 overs199/8 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 2) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

47%United Arab Emirates53%Bahrain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than United Arab Emirates (1,530 vs 1,512 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

United Arab Emirates started on 45%; United Arab Emirates batted first.

United Arab Emirates’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Bahrain: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

1.2: Ali Dawood to Waseem Muhammad, six by Waseem Muhammad. United Arab Emirates up from 45% to 51%.
2.2: Rizwan Butt to A Sharafu, six by A Sharafu. United Arab Emirates up from 57% to 62%.
2nd inns 11.1: Muhammad Farooq to Imran Ali Butt, Imran Ali Butt out. United Arab Emirates up from 82% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

United Arab Emirates236/6 Bahrain199/8

Innings 2

Bahrain

199/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Umer Imtiazlbw · Aayan Afzal Khan 0 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Aayan Afzal Khan	17	10	0	2	170.00
Imran Ali Buttcaught · Basil Hameed · Muhammad Farooq 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Basil Hameed · b Muhammad Farooq	35	30	5	0	116.67
Sarfaraz Alicaught · Aayan Afzal Khan · Akif Raja 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Aayan Afzal Khan · b Akif Raja	14	8	2	1	175.00
Imran Anwarbowled · Junaid Siddique 2 fours · 7 sixes	bowled · b Junaid Siddique	60	22	2	7	272.73
Haider Buttcaught · Waseem Muhammad · Aayan Afzal Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Aayan Afzal Khan	6	7	0	0	85.71

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	1	11.50	1	0
Akif Raja0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	59	1	14.75	4	0
Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	0	0
Ali Naseer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	0	0
Muhammad Farooq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	2	8.00	0	0
Waseem Muhammad0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	8	1	8.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	15	15/0
2	13	28/0
3	8	36/0
4	14	50/1
5	7	57/2
6	3	60/2
7	31	91/2
8	4	95/2
9	16	111/2
10	10	121/2
11	10	131/2
12	5	136/3
13	6	142/4
14	5	147/6
15	4	151/6
16	9	160/7
17	4	164/7
18	10	174/7
19	17	191/7
20	8	199/8

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