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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2024 · Men
6 Sept 2024 · Test
The Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankanot out 13 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 127* | 124 | 13 | 2 | 102.42 |
1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Chris Woakes | 8 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 38.10 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Shoaib Bashir · Gus Atkinson 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shoaib Bashir · b Gus Atkinson | 39 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 105.41 |
3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 32* |
| 61 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 52.46 |
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0 | 0 | 52 | 1 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gus Atkinson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 1 | 44 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hull0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| 8.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 5.63 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shoaib Bashir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-39 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 7.0) · 2-108 (Kusal Mendis, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 36/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 39/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 44/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 47/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 51/1 |
| 11 | 12 | 63/1 |
| 12 | 13 | 76/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 81/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 87/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 94/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 98/1 |
| 17 | 1 | 99/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 101/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 106/1 |
| 20 | 3 | 109/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 111/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 115/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 120/2 |
| 24 | 0 | 120/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 123/2 |
| 26 | 1 | 124/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 129/2 |
| 28 | 8 | 137/2 |
| 29 | 10 | 147/2 |
| 30 | 5 | 152/2 |
| 31 | 9 | 161/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 166/2 |
| 33 | 6 | 172/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 176/2 |
| 35 | 5 | 181/2 |
| 36 | 9 | 190/2 |
| 37 | 2 | 192/2 |
| 38 | 10 | 202/2 |
| 39 | 6 | 208/2 |
| 40 | 6 | 214/2 |
| 41 | 5 | 219/2 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Oli Stone: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.