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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2024 · Men
6 Sept 2024 · Test
The Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettcaught · Dinesh Chandimal · Milan Priyanath9 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Milan Priyanath | 86 | 79 | 9 | 2 | 108.86 |
 Daniel Lawrencecaught · Pathum Nissanka · Lahiru Kumara0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Lahiru Kumara | 5 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 23.81 |
 Ollie Popecaught · Dimuth Karunaratne · Vishwa Fernando19 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Dimuth Karunaratne · b Vishwa Fernando | 154 | 156 | 19 | 2 | 98.72 |
 Joe Rootcaught · Vishwa Fernando · Lahiru Kumara1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Vishwa Fernando · b Lahiru Kumara |
| 13 |
| 48 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 27.08 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Milan Priyanath1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Milan Priyanath | 19 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 48.72 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Kusal Mendis · Vishwa Fernando2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Vishwa Fernando | 16 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 51.61 |
|---|
 Chris Woakescaught · Milan Priyanath · Dhananjaya de Silva0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milan Priyanath · b Dhananjaya de Silva | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Milan Priyanath · Dhananjaya de Silva 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milan Priyanath · b Dhananjaya de Silva | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 41.67 |
|---|
 Oli Stonenot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 12 | 1 | 1 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Josh Hullcaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Asitha Fernando 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Asitha Fernando | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashircaught · Lahiru Kumara · Milan Priyanath 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lahiru Kumara · b Milan Priyanath | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 20.0 | 0 | 88 | 1 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Vishwa Fernando1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.0 | 1 | 46 | 2 | 3.54 | 1 | 0 |
| Lahiru Kumara1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 1 | 97 | 2 | 6.06 | 0 | 0 |
| Milan Priyanath3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.1 | 3 | 56 | 3 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Angelo Mathews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-45 (Daniel Lawrence, 9.2) · 2-140 (Ben Duckett, 26.0) · 3-191 (Joe Root, 38.3) · 4-261 (Harry Brook, 52.4) · 5-290 (Jamie Smith, 60.0) · 6-299 (Chris Woakes, 62.2) · 7-307 (Gus Atkinson, 64.5) · 8-307 (Ollie Pope, 65.1) · 9-318 (Josh Hull, 68.2) · 10-325 (Shoaib Bashir, 69.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 27/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 29/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 33/0 |
| 9 | 12 | 45/0 |
| 10 | 5 | 50/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 12 | 10 | 65/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 73/1 |
| 14 | 0 | 73/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 76/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 80/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 85/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 89/1 |
| 19 | 6 | 95/1 |
| 20 | 1 | 96/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 99/1 |
| 22 | 10 | 109/1 |
| 23 | 10 | 119/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 123/1 |
| 25 | 16 | 139/1 |
| 26 | 1 | 140/2 |
| 27 | 16 | 156/2 |
| 28 | 3 | 159/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 163/2 |
| 30 | 5 | 168/2 |
| 31 | 2 | 170/2 |
| 32 | 0 | 170/2 |
| 33 | 2 | 172/2 |
| 34 | 0 | 172/2 |
| 35 | 9 | 181/2 |
| 36 | 1 | 182/2 |
| 37 | 3 | 185/2 |
| 38 | 5 | 190/2 |
| 39 | 1 | 191/3 |
| 40 | 3 | 194/3 |
| 41 | 6 | 200/3 |
| 42 | 9 | 209/3 |
| 43 | 5 | 214/3 |
| 44 | 7 | 221/3 |
| 45 | 3 | 224/3 |
| 46 | 3 | 227/3 |
| 47 | 8 | 235/3 |
| 48 | 4 | 239/3 |
| 49 | 6 | 245/3 |
| 50 | 4 | 249/3 |
| 51 | 3 | 252/3 |
| 52 | 9 | 261/3 |
| 53 | 0 | 261/4 |
| 54 | 2 | 263/4 |
| 55 | 1 | 264/4 |
| 56 | 5 | 269/4 |
| 57 | 7 | 276/4 |
| 58 | 7 | 283/4 |
| 59 | 5 | 288/4 |
| 60 | 2 | 290/5 |
| 61 | 4 | 294/5 |
| 62 | 4 | 298/5 |
| 63 | 3 | 301/6 |
| 64 | 2 | 303/6 |
| 65 | 4 | 307/7 |
| 66 | 0 | 307/8 |
| 67 | 7 | 314/8 |
| 68 | 3 | 317/8 |
| 69 | 8 | 325/9 |
| 70 | 0 | 325/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Oli Stone: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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