BahrainversusCambodia

26 Nov 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 49 runs

Bahrain20.0 overs174/6 Cambodia15.5 overs125/10 University of Doha for Science and Technology ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

81%Bahrain19%Cambodia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Cambodia (1,500 vs 1,295 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 1 and Cambodia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 80%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Cambodia is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (Cambodia: 0% to 54%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.4: Rizwan Butt to Utkarsh Jain, Utkarsh Jain out. Bahrain up from 62% to 75%.
2nd inns 12.6: Imran Khan to Luqman Butt, Luqman Butt out. Bahrain up from 51% to 69%.
2nd inns 13.2: Rizwan Butt to E Beukes, E Beukes out. Bahrain up from 69% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain174/6 Cambodia125/10

Innings 2

Cambodia

125/1015.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Cambodia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Salvin Stanlycaught · Sohail Ahmed · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sohail Ahmed · b Ali Dawood	1	3	0	0	33.33
M Chadhacaught · Haider Butt · Rizwan Butt 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Haider Butt · b Rizwan Butt	38	29	3	2	131.03
US Hathinjarbowled · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ali Dawood	0	2	0	0	0.00
Luqman Buttbowled · Imran Khan (5) 7 fours · 6 sixes	bowled · b Imran Khan (5)	79	40	7	6	197.50
Utkarsh Jaincaught · Umer Imtiaz · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Umer Imtiaz · b Rizwan Butt	0	2	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ali Dawood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	3	6.33	2
Rizwan Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	5	5.00	0
Imran Anwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	0
Abdul Majeed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	0	9.00	0
Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	29	2	7.57	0
Asif Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	16	0	16.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/2
2	10	12/2
3	14	26/2
4	14	40/2
5	9	49/2
6	9	58/2
7	3	61/2
8	16	77/2
9	15	92/2
10	6	98/2
11	6	104/2
12	2	106/4
13	14	120/5
14	2	122/8
15	3	125/9
16	0	125/10

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