South AfricaversusZimbabwe

South Africa more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,685 vs 1,349 on our results rating)
• Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe
• In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 2 and Zimbabwe won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 87%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 88% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 12%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.4: T Makusha to M Smit, four by M Smit. South Africa up from 89% to 91%.
2. 2.5: T Makusha to M Smit, M Smit out. Zimbabwe up from 8% to 10%.
3. 2nd inns 0.3: M Smit to N Gwanzura, L Pemhiwa out. South Africa up from 97% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.