OmanversusKuwait

17 Apr 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Oman won by 46 runs

Oman20.0 overs200/9 Kuwait20.0 overs154/9 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 2) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Oman more likely to win

77%Oman23%Kuwait

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Oman rate stronger than Kuwait (1,628 vs 1,517 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Oman won 2 and Kuwait won 0
Oman are playing at home in Oman

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Oman started on 77%; Oman batted first.

Oman’s chance of winning (%) · Kuwait is the rest

Oman's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Kuwait: 0% to 39%).

Biggest swings

1.4: Ilyas Ahmed to Naseem Khushi, Naseem Khushi out. Kuwait up from 18% to 25%.
2.5: Yasin Patel to KH Prajapati, KH Prajapati out. Kuwait up from 24% to 33%.
2nd inns 4.5: Fayyaz Butt to CV Anto, CV Anto out. Oman up from 77% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Oman200/9 Kuwait154/9

Innings 1

Oman

200/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Oman batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kashyap Prajapaticaught · Meet Bhavsar · Yasin Patel 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Meet Bhavsar · b Yasin Patel	5	5	1	0	100.00
Naseem Khushirun out · Ravija Sandaruwan, Usman Patel · Ilyas Ahmed 3 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Ravija Sandaruwan, Usman Patel	13	9	3	0	144.44
Aaqib Ilyascaught · Sayed Monib · Adnan Idrees 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Sayed Monib · b Adnan Idrees	34	32	2	2	106.25
Zeeshan Maqsoodcaught · Yasin Patel · Nimish Lathief 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Yasin Patel · b Nimish Lathief	35	24	3	2	145.83
Khalid Kailcaught · Yasin Patel · Adnan Idrees 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Yasin Patel · b Adnan Idrees	15	11	0	1	136.36

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Yasin Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	1	10.25	0	0
Ilyas Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	0	0
Nimish Lathief0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0	0
Adnan Idrees0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	2	7.75	0	0
Mohomad Aslam0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	32	2	16.00	4	0
Sayed Monib0 maidens · 1 wides · 4 no-balls	2.0	43	0	21.50	1	4

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/0
2	3	17/1
3	5	22/2
4	2	24/2
5	8	32/2
6	15	47/2
7	5	52/2
8	3	55/2
9	7	62/2
10	10	72/3
11	11	83/3
12	8	91/3
13	3	94/4
14	10	104/5
15	9	113/5
16	16	129/5
17	14	143/6
18	27	170/6
19	23	193/8
20	7	200/9

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