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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier Group C · 2024 · Men
25 Aug 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Guernsey more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Estonia started on 35%; Estonia batted first.
Estonia's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (Guernsey: 61% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Butlercaught · M Vaik · Habib Khan 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Vaik · b Habib Khan | 29 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 120.83 |
| Ben Fitchetcaught · Bilal Masud · D Robson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Bilal Masud · b D Robson | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Tom Nightingalebowled · Habib Khan 4 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Habib Khan | 34 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 212.50 |
| Matthew Stokesnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 16 | 3 | 0 | 112.50 |
| Isaac Damarellbowled · Sahil Chauhan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sahil Chauhan | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Oliver Nightingale |
| lbw · b Sahil Chauhan |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| LT Bichardnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Robson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Gooch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 12.50 | 1 | 0 |
| P Gheewala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Masud0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Habib Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 7.58 | 0 | 0 |
| Sahil Chauhan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Ben Fitchet, 2.4) · 2-66 (Tom Nightingale, 6.4) · 3-79 (Josh Butler, 8.5) · 4-92 (Isaac Damarell, 11.2) · 5-92 (Oliver Nightingale, 11.3)
Recorded target: 100 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 14 | 36/1 |
| 5 | 16 | 52/1 |
| 6 | 13 | 65/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 69/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 79/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 83/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 92/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 98/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 102/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.